The State of the U.S. Democracy and the Prevalence of Climate Change Under a Trump-Region Trump Presidency
From repealing climate policies to overturning guidance on the safe development of artificial intelligence (AI), Republican Donald Trump made plenty of promises during his presidential campaign that could affect scientists and science policy. It will not be easy to fulfill all of his pledges.
“Starting now, we are going to need brave people, people willing to push back, protect the vulnerable, and do what’s right over what’s easy,” says one senior official with the US Environmental Protection Agency, who declined to be named because they were afraid of retribution under a new Trump administration. “We do have to remember what’s right. Protection of public health and the environment is what is right.
Worries pouring in this morning align with those expressed by the majority of readers who responded last month to a survey conducted by Nature. Climate change, public health, and the state of US democracy are some of the concerns that resulted in 86 per-cent of the 2,194 people who answered a poll favouring Harris. Some even said they would consider changing where they live or study if Trump won.
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Responses geared towards that sentiment have been put in place quickly. Tulio de Oliveira, a prominent virologist at the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, posted on X (the social-media platform formerly known as Twitter): “With the changes around the world, you may want to relocate to one of the best Universities in [South Africa] in one of the world’s most beautiful region!”, he said and linked to job ads for postgraduate and postdoctoral fellowships.
Some researchers are in favor of a Trump presidency. Of those who responded to Nature’s reader survey, 6% expressed a preference for Trump — usually citing concerns about security issues and the economy. The chief scientific officer at Seele Neuroscience, a neuroscience behavioural laboratory in Mexico City, told Nature that he thought Trump was the lesser of the evils. The Mexican economy is strongly dependent on decisions made by the US government, Monroy-Fonseca says.
A reader who agreed to be contacted but did not want their name to be used, was worried that Trump is against science and evidence. The nurse in question stated that they were voting for Trump because they wanted to be safety and also be able to take care of their family.
Fraser Stoddart, a chemistry chair at the University of Hong Kong, says he has been sad in his long life. That is something I have seen and I feel that it is extremely bad for everyone in the world.
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Votes are still being counted in many places, but Trump has already won enough US states to sail to a resounding victory over his opponent, vice-president and Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump claimed early today that his coalition was the greatest political movement of all time.
Republicans also look primed to win the upper chamber of the US Congress — the Senate — flipping at least three Democratic seats, although there are four more competitive races that have yet to be called for either party. It could be days or weeks before the final results are in for the lower chamber, the US House of Representatives, but it seems likely that Republicans will retain control. This would allow Trump and his party full control of government in Washington DC.
“We need to be ready for a new world,” says Grazyna Jasienska, a longevity researcher at Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland. I’m trying to be hopeful, but it’s hard to find any positives for global science if the Republicans take over.
Trump has denied the effectiveness of vaccinations, called climate change a hoax, and said that he would give Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a political figure who denied the effectiveness of vaccines, a big role in his administration.
As he re-enters the White House in January, Trump will have some advantages. The first time he took office in 2017, his victory was a surprise, and many government watchers who spoke to Nature say that he didn’t have a solid plan. By contrast, the Trump administration that enters office next year will be better prepared, and Trump himself is likely to face fewer checks on his power now that he has consolidated control over the Republican establishment, says Matt Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University in Washington DC who studies the modern conservative movement.
The fact that he will do as he pleases does not mean he will be able to. There is a sweep to most of Trump’s promises that may interfere with the reality of implementation.
The order emphasized making sure the models don’t output discrimination. That is probably not going to be a priority for the new administration according to Venkatasubramanian. The Republican platform says that it will “support AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing”.
It is likely that Trump will implement his plan as soon as he takes the White House because his executive orders can be revoked at any time. What will Donald trump do to take the place of it?
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“The emphasis will shift away from the regulatory environment” and towards technology companies making their own voluntary decisions on safety, says Suresh Venkatasubramanian, director of the Center for Technological Responsibility, Reimagination, and Redesign at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. Venkatasubramanian does not think that that will be enough to address the risks associated with Artificial Intelligence, data-privacy concerns, and the use of biased algorithms.
The absence of the United States in the pact might reduce pressure on China and others to curb emissions as time is running short. “This is a pivotal decade for climate action, and four more years of Trump could be disastrous in terms of mobilizing climate action,” Lewis says.
The most important piece of Biden’s climate achievement was the act known as theIRA, which created a raft of federal investments now estimated at more than US $1 trillion in climate and clean energy that are scheduled to run until around 2032. Repealing that legislation would require an act of the US Congress. But even if Republicans end up in control of both congressional chambers, businesses and leaders in conservative US states that are already benefitting from IRA investments might not be eager to cut off the flow of federal money, says Joanna Lewis, who heads the science technology and international affairs programme at Georgetown University in Washington DC.
The president-elect has also promised to once again pull the United States out of the 2015 Paris agreement, which commits member countries to limiting global warming to 1.5–2 °C above preindustrial levels. Trump’s administration had to wait until 2020 before formally leaving the agreement last time, and Biden moved to rejoin the agreement quickly after taking office several months later. The leaving process would only take one year this time, according to the agreement.
Washington DC: What is the bright spot for US-China scientific cooperation? A think tank analysis of Emanuel’s frustrations with the Trump administration
The American Public Health Association in Washington DC worries about Kennedy because he has cast doubt on the vaccine approval process and could cause a resurgence of illnesses such as measles. If Kennedy and Trump implement some things they say, people will get sick and die from confusion around vaccines.
It is not clear if Kennedy will be nominated by Trump to a position such as director of US health and Human Services, but it is certain that he will have Trump’s ear on health issues.
While support for global health is likely to be scaled back during the second term of Trump, he has made it clear that he dislikes the World Health Organization. Emanuel said that the US is the main player in funding global-health initiatives. This includes a programme that is meant to end the epidemic. It’s hard to be optimistic about the future.
Specialists says it’s unclear whether the second Trump administration will revive the China Initiative, although the Republican-led US House of Representatives advanced legislation in September that would do so. But a reinstatement of the travel ban is likely, says Adam Cohen, a lawyer at Siskind Susser in Memphis, Tennessee, who focuses on academic immigration and who says the president has broad authority to institute such policies.
There might be a bright spot for US-China partnerships. Denis Simon, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a foreign policy think tank in Washington DC, thinks that a crucial pact governing US-China scientific cooperation that has been expired for the past year is likely to be signed by the Biden administration before Trump’s second inauguration in January. A renewal of the agreement, although it is will probably be more limited in scope owing to increased US-China tensions, would show that “both governments give their blessing” to collaborations, Simon says.